Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

A Possible Relationship Between Chitinozoa And Tintinnids

The biological affinity of the extinct microfossil order chitinozoa has been the source of much discussion in the fifty years since they were first discovered. Within this period these flask-shaped, organic-walled organisms have been variously attributed to rhizopods, flagellates, tintinnids, chrysomonads, metazoan eggs, dinoflagellates, and fungi. Most of these suggested relationships were made before it was recognised that chitinozoans were encapsulated and must therefore be resting cysts or eggs and not active individuals. There are no living organisms which combine all the characteristics of the chitinozoa. Of all the possibilities, a grouping of flask-shaped cysts which have been found in present-day marine plankton and sediment comes closest to characterising the morphology of chitinozoa. This grouping of flask-shaped cysts includes forms which have been found within tintinnid loricae. Another modern cyst type Pacillina arctica, which is believed to be a ciliate cyst, comes close to replicating the morphology of the chitinozoan genus Hoegisphaera. This paper discusses the structure of tintinnid, other flask-shaped cysts and Pacillina arctica in relation to chitinozoan morphology, drawing attention to similarities and differences. The occurrence and distribution of these cyst forms in present-day plankton is also described and interpreted.